Precisely, Michael. The systemic contagion is the primary risk. The GTS engine indicates that because NVIDIA acts as the 'central node' for the NASDAQ's current valuation matrix, a 40% correction isn't contained—it’s a de-leveraging event for the entire AI infrastructure play. The 'Inventory Leak' we’ve identified is the first domino. We are no longer looking at a market cycle, but a structural re-set.
Excellent breakdown of the CES momentum, Michael. However, from a GTS (General Theory System) perspective, the 'early' arrival of Vera Rubin looks less like a strategic flex and more like a tactical necessity to mask the Inventory Leak in the Blackwell cycle.
Our RCP regression suggests that the pivot into Alpamayo and Physical AI is a defensive Matrix (M) expansion. As Tier-1 clients accelerate their move toward silicon autonomy, NVIDIA is forced to commoditize its software stack to keep the hardware relevant. We’ve calculated a 40% systemic contraction by Q2. The tension (MFn) is reaching a breaking point that PR can no longer stabilize. Detailed diagnostic is on my profile for those tracking the structural disconnect.
A couple of thoughts on an great post about how 2026 is shaping up, not even a week in!
1. Some of the recent publications clarified for me what NVidia is trying to be: they are pushing research frontiers so that other labs can follow, thereby expanding beyond the current paradigm / technical branch of pure scaling of pre- / post-training of LLMs. I.e. Cascade-RL, Nemotron-3 (hybrid arch). They’re not trying to *beat* research labs, but trying to expand the field *for* research labs
2. I really don’t buy the idea that the current investment thesis is AGI. At least for the vast majority of investors. If one believed AGI was around the corner (AGI 2027) and OpenAI was the lab to *get there*, the valuation would be 10s of trillions of dollars.
I really believe that investors are looking at a.) massive but slow economic value over 5-10 years and b.) compute / GPU as the next infrastructure play with national security implications. Perhaps you could say things are still overvalued (I believe this!) but we really shouldn’t pretend the AI bubble is built on an illusion of AGI.
If demand for Nvidia's gpus were to tank, it would torpedo the NASDAQ 100 and the entire inflated semiconductor stock boom.
Precisely, Michael. The systemic contagion is the primary risk. The GTS engine indicates that because NVIDIA acts as the 'central node' for the NASDAQ's current valuation matrix, a 40% correction isn't contained—it’s a de-leveraging event for the entire AI infrastructure play. The 'Inventory Leak' we’ve identified is the first domino. We are no longer looking at a market cycle, but a structural re-set.
Excellent breakdown of the CES momentum, Michael. However, from a GTS (General Theory System) perspective, the 'early' arrival of Vera Rubin looks less like a strategic flex and more like a tactical necessity to mask the Inventory Leak in the Blackwell cycle.
Our RCP regression suggests that the pivot into Alpamayo and Physical AI is a defensive Matrix (M) expansion. As Tier-1 clients accelerate their move toward silicon autonomy, NVIDIA is forced to commoditize its software stack to keep the hardware relevant. We’ve calculated a 40% systemic contraction by Q2. The tension (MFn) is reaching a breaking point that PR can no longer stabilize. Detailed diagnostic is on my profile for those tracking the structural disconnect.
A couple of thoughts on an great post about how 2026 is shaping up, not even a week in!
1. Some of the recent publications clarified for me what NVidia is trying to be: they are pushing research frontiers so that other labs can follow, thereby expanding beyond the current paradigm / technical branch of pure scaling of pre- / post-training of LLMs. I.e. Cascade-RL, Nemotron-3 (hybrid arch). They’re not trying to *beat* research labs, but trying to expand the field *for* research labs
2. I really don’t buy the idea that the current investment thesis is AGI. At least for the vast majority of investors. If one believed AGI was around the corner (AGI 2027) and OpenAI was the lab to *get there*, the valuation would be 10s of trillions of dollars.
I really believe that investors are looking at a.) massive but slow economic value over 5-10 years and b.) compute / GPU as the next infrastructure play with national security implications. Perhaps you could say things are still overvalued (I believe this!) but we really shouldn’t pretend the AI bubble is built on an illusion of AGI.